The Watch · Follow the Money
Short answer, on the record as it stands: most of the money is lawful and disclosed. The deal is lopsided in ways the law allows. The state’s top law officer is reviewing the public-comment record without having identified anyone. And nothing in the record shows bribery, or collusion in its legal sense. This page shows the money, and then shows exactly what it would take to prove anything worse.
Figures as of 2026-10-18 · money.json ·
What the public gives up — and what it holds in return
A ceiling on drawdown bonds, every series bought by a company on the borrowing side. It moves title to the county — which takes the property off the tax rolls — not money. The county pledged no faith and credit: no public debt.
The LFC’s maximum: $1.7 billion in state gross-receipts deductions and $1.6 billion in local GRT and property-tax benefits. No time horizon stated, and no estimate of whether the incentive changed the decision.
The dollar value taken off the county’s rolls has not been published.
A flow back to the public, not a subsidy — the county’s only recurring revenue from the project. Thirty years at $12 million is $360 million, before inflation.
The first $50 million goes to a county water and wastewater fund. It is clawed back only if construction investment stays under $350 million by 2035, and every clawback is waived once it passes $400 million after 2027 — against a stated $50 billion investment.
A cash grant for training, the one subsidy the incentive literature rates well per dollar.
From Green Chile Ventures LLC, Oracle’s project company — not Oracle Corporation. It covers the benefits-agreement payments only: not the payment in lieu of taxes, not the bonds.
$3.3 billion ÷ 750 full-time jobs required by December 31, 2031. Unknowns change it: the LFC states no time horizon, and does not say whether its figure is before or after the payments in lieu of taxes. Good Jobs First’s 2016 average for data-center megadeals was $1.95 million per job.
What the companies and their people gave to New Mexico politics
Twenty-four contributions totalling $148,325, less $10,000 returned by Rep. Nathan Small’s campaign. Its lobbyist reported $145,000 of the same gifts on its behalf — one set of gifts, disclosed twice, never added together.
$59,850 given, less a $5,000 return reported by the House Democratic campaign committee.
Mostly $250,000 to Affordable NM. Energy Transfer’s political action committee separately gave $5,000 to a state senator’s campaign in July; that is listed apart, not added.
Contributions of $1,000 or more from Oracle, STACK and the contractor Clayco and their executives, matched on name and reported employer.
What was spent to persuade
Yucca Growth Infrastructure, BorderPlex, Bloom Energy, STACK, Oracle America, and — since October 1 — OpenAI OpCo LLC, plus Energy Transfer. “Authorized: No” on a roster is reported as filed, never interpreted.
Disclosed to the State Ethics Commission as aimed at Environment Department officials. Oracle said the disclosure was not an admission that it was required.
All of it from Yucca Growth Infrastructure, disclosed only under an Ethics Commission settlement. What happened to the rest has not been reported.
Private money at private risk
Reported, not published: about twenty banks, four years plus two one-year extensions. In September syndicate banks were quoting it at 89 to 91 cents on the dollar.
One person familiar with the deal, to Reuters — who also said Oracle cannot terminate its lease and pays the debt costs.
Blue Owl Real Estate Net Lease Trust, a non-listed REIT that sells shares through a private offering, lists the Red Chiles companies in its annual report. Its share is not stated.
Data-center leases expected to begin between 2026 and 2029, for fifteen to nineteen years. Oracle’s filings never say which are Project Jupiter.
What the companies say they will pay the public — company claims, not yet contracts on the record
For late-stage construction, commissioning, backup and life safety. The county’s chair says the connection is not allowed under the bonds as written.
A proposal, not yet a filed agreement.
Put the deal’s dates on one line and an order appears. The companies’ ways out come first. The public’s ways to recover anything come next. The forgone tax runs longest.
The companies’ exitsThe public’s recovery rightsThe forgone tax
“Corruption” means different things to a scholar and to a court. So here is the whole ladder, from what is plainly lawful to what is a crime. Each rung says where the record sits, what it shows, what it cannot rule out, and what would change the answer. Most of the money stays on the first two rungs. The argument of this page does not depend on climbing higher: what is lawful can still matter.
Contributions within the limits, registered lobbying, disclosed advertising. The Supreme Court: “Ingratiation and access, in any event, are not corruption.” Citizens United v. FEC (2010), opinion (PDF) ↗
An advantage the law allows: a few interests with a great deal at stake are organized and funded, the public that bears the cost is large and scattered, and the people deciding come to rely on those interests for something they need. Not a legal term — the Watch’s working definition.
A regulator that, over time, comes to serve the industry it regulates rather than the public. Not a legal term — the Watch’s working definition.
New Mexico law disqualifies a public officer from an official act directly affecting an ownership interest or employment held by the officer or family. Legislators are outside that definition. NMSA Chapter 10 — Governmental Conduct Act, §10-16-2 and §10-16-4 ↗
In law, an agreement among competitors to restrain trade. Petitioning the government — even through publicity made to look spontaneous — is not collusion under the antitrust laws. Eastern R.R. Presidents Conf. v. Noerr Motor Freight (1961) ↗
New Mexico’s identity-theft and forgery statutes are the nearest text. The Attorney General has charged no one and made no finding. NM Attorney General — letter on the comment record (Oct 14 2026, PDF) ↗
A thing of value tied to an official act by agreement. A meeting, “without more,” is not an official act — though it “could serve as evidence of an agreement.” McDonnell v. United States (2016), slip opinion (PDF) ↗
This page states what the law says and what the record does or does not show against it. It does not accuse any person of a crime, and it treats a date match as a date match.
Each of these is a document or a figure someone holds. Until it is public, this page says so.
The Project Jupiter Watch. “Follow the Money.” Oct 18, 2026. https://projectjupiter.watch/money
The decision was due July 21. Instead: a public hearing — first set for October, moved up to September 14 at the applicant’s request, stayed by the Supreme Court, and now set for December 7, after the November 23 date the department had set for its own ruling. A $165B question for one desert county, on a schedule that keeps moving. The clock above always shows the next date that matters. Until the ruling, and after, this is the public watch on how it’s being made.